The USGA will set up Shinnecock Hills to “identify the best golfer in the game” this week as the U.S. Open revives it’s love affair with this storied track in the sand hills of eastern Long Island. The penal nature of the set-up, with ankle deep rough off the fairways, knee high fescue just past that, table top greens that roll like marble with runaway surrounds on all the greens, should prove the toughest test these player’s will face all year.
Most of the 156 gents who will tee it up on Thursday won’t have a realistic chance to win this championship. The nature of the course and the pressure cooker that winning a major championship exerts on players effectively winnows the ranks of contenders to a small percentage of the field even before the first ball is struck.
The average world rank of the past seven U.S.Open Champions is #12. Tommy Fleetwood is currently ranked #12 and is an easy pick, especially for our European friends. I’m a big fan of Tommy Fleetwood but not a backer at this week’s tournament. He had a puzzling weekend showing at the BMW PGA at Wentworth last month and I’m looking for gents with real good form coming in to this championship.
Let’s take a quick look at the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking.
- Dustin Johnson- he reclaimed the #1 rank with last week’s title at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in Memphis and looks to me like he’s rounding back into the form that had him rolling over all the competition in the run up to the 2017 Masters. That fateful slip down the steps took him out of that tournament and put the kibosh on a run of dominating performances that was beginning to feel Tiger-like. He’s back, now with two wins on tour this year, and he’s ready to take his second U.S. Open title. Even if the USGA tries to screw with him again (like the unconscionable scoring fubar at Oakmont in 2016) DJ will prevail. He’s my pick, take it to the bank.
- Justin Thomas – JT had a brief four week run at the top of work golf and a win this week would catapult him back to that promontory. He’s a real bulldog of a player, with a major Championship already in his pocket, as he took the 2017 PGA in style. He flashed historical major chops at last last year’s U.S. Open with a record tying 63 in Saturday’s third round. He then mystified us all when he followed that gem up with an 80 in the final round. I love this kid’s attitude and approach to the game, with power that’s damned near unbelievable for guy with such a slight physique. But he’s not on my short list this week, you can’t pick ‘em all.
- Justin Rose- The World #3 is one of the preeminent ball stickers in the game and has proven that he’s equal to the task of mastering a U.S. Open Course. He did it in 2013 at Merion (where Philly Mick had the championship on his wedge but let his chance slip away once again) by splitting the fairway at #18 and then sticking a four iron to six feet. He might do it again but I’m not betting on it- I’ve been picking him in majors a lot recently without success, so I’m off him now. He’ll probably take the title just for spite.
- Jordan Spieth- Jordan is a past U.S. Open Champ, taking home the trophy from Chamber’s Bay in 2015 when DJ three jacked from twelve feet. He’s a big time talent with two other majors in tow, the 2015 Masters and last year’s incredible win at The OPEN. But right now he’s like Harry Potter without his magic wand, since there’s certainly no magic in Jordan’s putter this season. I think Spieth will be packing his bags on Friday for the trip out of town, as he’ll miss the cut. He’ll probably go home and recapture his stoke and go on to defend his OPEN win next month at Old Nasty Carnoustie.
- Jon Rahm- The Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria have set sail for Long Island this week and one of those gallant Spanish galleons just might discover the passage to the U.S. Open Championship. Pardon my clumsy Columbus analogy but the trio of Sergio Garcia, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Jon Rahm bring a rare combination of fire, elegance and bravado to the game which might well translate into a win for one of their number. Jon Rahm is the baby bull of this group and has all the tools to be a major champion, like his countryman Sergio. He also has the self-belief required to succeed at the highest level of the sport. With his own National Open in his back pocket he just might add that of the US of A. He‘s on my short list of contender’s.
- Rory McIlroy- This four time major champ is a rare talent but, in my mind, he’s still in a mental funk that will prevent him from prevailing at this or any other major until he fully purges his self-doubt and replaces it with authentic self-belief. His whistling in the dark Saturday at the Masters coupled with his Sunday opening tee ball declared for all to see that he’s captive to some vexing demon’s. This was painfully underscored last month at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. He had a firm hold on the tourney with torrid play the first two days, then fell apart like a cheap suit on the weekend. I don’t know what it will take for Rory to reclaim his true form as a dominant force in golf and I hope it comes soon, but it won’t be this week.
- Rickie Fowler- Rickie has flair, fans by the millions, a great putting stroke, riches, the admiration of his peers and now a new fiancé. What he doesn’t have is a major championship and his quest will continue. His Sunday push at Augusta was spectacular but Shinnecock is a different animal, and Rickie has the unlucky knack of notching some big numbers in the big events. You can’t survive at Shinnecock with doubles or worse.
- Jason Day- Two wins this season show us that Day is back on track to challenge for the number one ranking he held for a year before injuries, family crises and the unrelenting pressure of being king of the hill knocked him to his knees. Day is among the best putters in the world, with a short game to match. He’s also a premier bomber who can take advantage of the 40 yard wide fairways Mike Davis has grown at Shinnecock. Another member of my short list.
- Brooks Koepka – Koepka is a bit under the radar given his absence early in the year due to a wrist injury. Last year’s Champ get’s less respect than deserved, I think. Many talking heads diminish his accomplishment at Erin Hills since it was such an unusual venue, that played more like a typical PGA Tour event than a vaunted U.S. Open. Brooks has a deft touch on and around the greens to go with his elite driving game. Yet, the difficulty of going back to back will be too much load to carry.
10. Hideki Matsuyama- This Japanese star with the beautiful full rest at the top of his swing rounds out the top 10. But his ranking is the vestige of past accomplishments as his recent form is far below the standard of play he established in 2016 into 2017. Sayonara, Mr. Matsuyama.
At the end of the championship Dustin Johnson will go home with the glory.
Day and Rahm will be in the hunt. Spieth will be home in Dallas eating BBQ while Tiger will keep the flame alive with a top twenty showing.
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